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amerikaa aarthika vyavastha second half of 1990-2000 nunDi vipareetamaina pressure nu edurkunTundi. current account deficit jee Dee pee loa aaru Saataaniki taakindi. sumaaru 700 bilyan` la Daalarla DefisiT idi. adae 40 samvatsaraala kritam sumaaru 7 biliyan` la surplus toa unDaedi. american economy japaan` vanTi daeSaala nunDi vipareetamaina poaTee edurkoavaDam toa, prapancha vyaaptangaa tanu unchina miliTaree valla perigina vyayam valla aitaenaemi , aapai viyatnaam` yuddham valla 1970 la tarvaataa baagaa aaTupoaTlu edurkundi. adi taTTukoaDaaniki amerikaa prabhutvam appaTloa bangaaru Daalaru maarakaanni nishaedhinchidni kooDaa. pradhaanangaa idi pooDchukoavalanTae sumaaru 2 biliyan` Daalarla vedaeSee peTTubaDulu raavaalsi undi. aitae adi khachchitangaa niluputundani kooDaa gyaaranTee laedu endukanTae prastutam unna aarthika vyavastha bhaareegaa appula meeda aadharapaDi undi. consumer spending kooDaa speculative spending gaa unDi, credit card spending unDipoayindi. ( personal loans have touched almost 45,00,000 crores of rupees ! ) nijaaniki it is nothing but discounting future prospects for present sustainability. . ee pariNaamaalanni konta US Dollar patanam loa goacharinchaayi. anTae antaku mundu pedda goppa balamaina karen`see ani kaadu...appaTloa rashyaa saamraajya vaada aarthika vyavastha patanam, south east asian crisis valla, yooroa niSchalata meeda unna uncertainty valla konta varaku relative political stability unDaDam valla amerikaa Daalar investors dRushTiloa merugannaTTu sphurinchindi tappa nijangaa aarthika vyavastha loa organic strength unDabaTTi kaadu. antae kaadu... delta airlines, northwest airlines, US Airwyas, United airlines laanTi pedda pedda samsthalu bankruptcy petitions file chaesaayi. General motors 9 plants nu moosi vaesi 30,000 udyoagulanu inTiki pampi vaeyaalani nirNayinchukundi. nijaaniki jaagartagaa gamanistae US economy loa real wages paDi poaayaayi. US Census Beareau report prakaaram below poverty loa unna prajala sankhya 2000 nunDi consistent gaa perugutoo undi. manam ee economic crisis nu sarigga artham chaesukoavaali. ee facts and figures artham raepoa ellunDo amerikaa koolipoatundani kaadu. adae choostae investment bankers salaries vipareetamaina sthaayiloa erigaayi. enduku? mergers acuisitions business baagaa oopandukoavaDam pradhaanam ayyindi ( anTae evarannaa chanipoyaaranukoanDi...akkaDunna kaaTi kaapariki, vaDrangiki, mara maraalu ammukunae vaaDiki aadaayam kaliginaTTu ). aapai speculative investments peragaDam valla kooDaa. inkaa enrgy companies jeetaal kooDaa baagaa peragaDam jarigindi sagaTu maanavuDi naDDi viraggoDutunna indhanam dharala valla. ( chooDanDi...aarthika patanam yokka prabhaavam andarikee uniform gaa unDadu. asalu aarthika patanam gurinchi manam enduku worry avvaali anae praSna koddigaa pakkaku jarigi aa tarvaata charchiddaam. ) prati arthika vyavastha iTuvanTi samasyalanu post pone chaesae prayatnaalu chaestunTaayi. 1970 laloa bangaaru maarakaanni nishaedhinchaDam oka udaaharaNa. alaagae ilaa postponement valla technology improvements toa productivity penchukuni konta balam samakoorchukunae prayatnaalu jarugutaayi. aitae mottangaa prajalu elaa nashTa poataaroa chooDaali. eppuDoa 40, 50 samvatsaraala tarvaata paedarikaani nirmoolistaamu anae ninaadaalu annee to that extent ae 60, 70 samvatsaraalakoa perigi poatoo unTaayi. endukanTae idantaa Trickle theory kaabaTTi. idilaa unTae real wage rate paDipoatunnaa kooDaa US Senate aa madhya minimum wages nu penchae billuku vyatiraekangaa oaTu vaeyaDam toa veegipoayindi. indulao vaaLLa tappu kooDaa aemee laenaTTae kanipistundi. endukanTae ippuDunna aarthika samasyaku perigipoayina Srama dhara bhaaram avutundani vaaLLu aukunnaaru kaabaTTi. manchidae aitae paDi poayina konugoalu Sakti valla drvyalbaNam meeda teevra prabhaavam choopae pramaadam undi induloa. nijaaniki minimum wage sampaayinchae prajalu oka miliyan` loapae unnaa...manam gamaninchaalasindaemanTae prabhutvaalu enta neetigaa unna ( aedoa okaTi manamanukunae neeti ) , nijaayiteegaa unnaa ( aedoa oka farse sincerity ) avi tappani paristhitulloa crisis nu post pone chaesae kramamloa prajalanu marinta ibbandi peTTaalsindae. induloa democratic party laedaa undemocratic party taeDaalu aemee laevu. mari aarthika bhaaraanni saagistoo prajala yoaga kshaemaalanu kooDaa paTTinchukunToo prabhutvam naDapaalanTae idoa pedda chaeta kaani circus feet . idae kramamloa amerikaa tana praapanchika adhikaaraanni konasaaginchaDaaniki miliTaree vyayyaanni penchukoavaalsindae. ai ae prabhutvam vachchinaa sarae. ilaa anutpaadaka vyayam debba aarthika vyavastha meeda cascading effct choopinchaka tappadu. deeniki toaDu harikaen` saaku dorakaDam toa prajala pai peTTalsina aarogya samkshaema vyayaanni amerikaa prabhutvam tagginchae prayatnaalu modalu peTTindi. iha kluptangaa mugistae amerikaa loa unna samkshoabham ippaTidi kaadu. adae rakangaa migataa agra daeSaalloa unna samkshobham kooDaa manam marava raadu. oka artificial platform meeda aa vyavasthanu nilipae prayatnam vistRutangaa jarugutundi. konta varaku success kooDaa avutaaru. aitae enta kaalam ani praSna. sen`seks nijaaniki true indicator gaa unDadu. adi konta global savings nu relative better destination dRukpathamtoa kooDaa naDuputundi. mana sen`seks gata koddi nelalloa 5000 nunDi padi vaelaku perigindanTae manam 100 Saatam perigindanna arthaanni sphurinchadu. aitae induloa manam konni clues vetakochchu. aarthika vyavastha loa paarutunna speculative investment , dollar flows meeda oka anchanaa kaTTavachchu. manamantaa aloachinchavalasindaemanTae - aarthika patanam valla evaru nashTa poataaru ? mana saafT waer` udyoagaalu enta varaku unTaayanaa? vachchae samvatsaram jeetalu enta perugutaayanaa? ambaanee , sachin` TenDoolkarlu Audi, BMW cars maarchutaaraa laeraa anaa? raaja Saekhar reDDi enta nashTa poataaDu anaa? udyoagam unna vaaLLu taggaDam valla kaTnam perugutundanaa? vachchae samvatsaram manam plasma TV konagalugutaamaa laedaa anaa? elaa aloachinchaali?........................

Posted by: Mr. Aandhrudu At: 1, Feb 2006 1:51:03 AM IST

Dear Papa Rao gaaru, Pardon me for the delay in responding. I must appreciate you for your commitment and patience in giving elaborate replies to all the respondents. I don't prefer participating in net discussions because it is easy to be misunderstood and to misunderstand. When it comes to political discussions, it is even more complicated. I misinterpreted your views at some places. You misinterpreted mine too, as in the case of my mentioning Alan Greenspan as the darling of American economy. I said it sarcastically. If Greenspan were such a great economist as he was projected, he could have averted the stock market collapse in the USA. I'm not biased towards any 'class'. In any case, I feel such discussions require face-to-face communication so as to avoid misinterpretations and hence I don't want to dwell deep into it. Lastly, you asked me about the alternative economy that I mentioned. Though coincidental, I have been working on this alternative economy concept for the last few years and I'm going to bring it out and dedicate it to the nation very soon. This is just a tiny little contribution from my side. Intellectuals like you need to come up with concepts to create a sustainable economy. It's a collective vision. Whether capitalism or communism, if the interests of majority of the people are not served, it is bound to be brought down by the people, sooner or later. It has been proved by the history. I appreciate once agin for your patience. Regards Pragna Maharshi

Posted by: Mr. Maharshi Pragna At: 31, Jan 2006 8:23:49 PM IST

Hi Andhrudu garu, Bourgeoisie culture is dependent upon Bourgeoisie economic conditions- when the economic condition of the working class suffers then there are ample chances for this class to be liberated of these clutches of bourgeoisie culture…the hard conditions of life do make it inevitable. Mainly, the class which has enjoyed the fruits of exploitation (in the form of labor aristocracy) is bound to become more revolutionary when its conditions deteriorate than the class the living conditions of which are not so well of, to start with...Moreover, in developed countries the chance of the working class remaining a labor aristocracy are declining fast because of the factors like outsourcings and unemployment..Infact the lifestyle based on debts is a bubble it can’t last longer. I do agree with you… As to the lumpenization I agree with you with my own reservations... And will mail you with more information soon... Regarding the latest comment— my answer is as long as capitalism survives crises are unavoidable (this is my answer to the issue you pointed out-'crisis and how the economy can act possibly to get rid of this'.) It is inherent in its nature and structure. Unless capitalism is overthrown the tragedy of these crises will continue..And as to the second point of –shedding the democratic masks and openly attacking the people. I believe we should not ignore the dialectics of the process here too. If the ruling class oppression increases the resistance of the common masses too increases as a response… Regards d.paparao

Posted by: Mr. devabhaktuni paparao At: 27, Jan 2006 11:28:07 AM IST

Thats informative again Paparao garu, but - sorry if I sound redundant again - I dont agree with a couple of things .. You said .. The economic downturn began far before the present raise in oil prices … moreover; expecting that if Bush goes that everything will be all right is also a mistaken notion. -------------------- I just said things related to Oil would be bad as long as Bush is in power. I didnt mean to say his exit would auotamtically set things straight .. and I still insist that the current crisis/inflation in the US is due to Oil Prices - may be this is one point that we dont seem to be agreeing up on. The fall of DOW Jones around 2000 was a direct off shoot of Tech-Downfall since many of the Technology comps traded on Dow Jones too. And Yeah please lemme make it clear that I am only talkign about the economic status - if the US had done something right or something wrong,then so be it .. we all know that US does only those things that would interest it .. to hell with Ethics and all!

Posted by: Malakpet Rowdy At: 25, Jan 2006 6:07:05 PM IST

Thats very informative anDi sen`seks patanam enta varakundi? enta varaku amerikaa aarthika vyavasthanu koola goTTa galugutundi? anna praSnala kanTae mundu - ilaa aedoa oka crisis situation chooyistoo marxian angle loa kaepiTalisT vyavastha patanam avutundi ani conclusions ku vachchae prayatnam nijaanikee poortigaa sari kaadu. enudakanTae inni koaTla peTTubaDulu vRudhaa avutunTae inta obvious gaa kanipinchae vishayaalu evaroo neglect chaeyaru. kaabaTTi nijangaa project chaeyaalsina vishayam aenTanTae - crisis and how the economy can act possibly to get rid of this? ani. adae kramamaloa aarthika vyavastha elaa tappani sarigaa ee aarthika sankshobhaanni taTTukoaaDaaniki tana prajaa svaamika musugunu elaa toliginchi aTu tirigi iTu tirigi saaamaanya maanavunni elaa moadutundoa chooDaali. but anyway it is a nice article!

Posted by: Mr. Aandhrudu At: 24, Jan 2006 9:38:13 PM IST

Hi ,Puroorava Chakravarti garu, Thank you for your comment… but, I don’t agree with your assessment that I am involving in wishful thinking.. as we all must remember all the basics of the American economy do point towards an impending catastrophe.. Moreover, even a major section of the American economists themselves are now involved in predicting the coming crisis...please do read the replies that were given to the comments of Malakpet Rowdy Garu’s questions... So, I want to very clearly state that I am not involving in wishful thinking… but trying to forecast the future on the basis of inescapable & hard facts.. Being a person with an immense belief in the potential of the masses to fight back the neo-liberal onslaught on their already worsening living conditions and the consequent trauma I sincerely do assess that the loot of the American elite on the people could not continue for long… Regards, d.paparao Ms.Vijaya Prabha garu, Thank you for your comment-I replied to Malakpet Rowdy Garu’s questions-and the on going discussion between Andhrudu garu and me is continuing …I will reply to Andhrudu Garu’s latest question at the earliest. As to your question of- US economical indices moving up words –I do agree with you that the US GDP indices, productivity indices are going up- but what we have to remember and observe is that though the cake is becoming bigger the share of the majority of the American common people is constantly on the decline …inequalities are increasing, the lot of the American working class is worsening… the reason for the productivity rise is- improvements in technology and the increasing working hours of the working class. Regards, d.paparao

Posted by: Mr. devabhaktuni paparao At: 23, Jan 2006 2:20:44 PM IST

Hi Bhardwaj Garu, Capitalist crises and war are always inextricably connected. So I like to stick to my point regarding US stock market which was pointed out by you in your latest comment. Bhardwaj garu, you wrote that DOW JONES raise started well before the Iraq war…but let me tell you- the gathering clouds of war on Iraq were quite visible long before the actual invasion started… so this itself is enough to raise the market sentiment. If you still want to believe there is no connection between a capitalist war and the stock market. Please see the two excerpts I quoted below (one from the capitalism magazine, another from the Guardian website). Before I quote those excerpts let me clarify one more point you raised in that paragraph (as per you- in Afghanistan there is no reconstruction work of any significance) – here I want to make it very clear that – going into war and dropping bombs itself could be the bread and butter for many companies of military industrial complex and the industries indirectly related with them. Moreover it is the global energy strategy of the Multinationals that prompted war against Afghanistan (because of its crucial geopolitical position), and Iraq. But this entire war game in those two countries boomeranged.The puppet govt. in Afghanistan is confined to Kabul- that to during the day light hours. Where as Iraq is an apparent case of outright failure of the US strategy because of the stiff resistance being put up by the rebels- this is the reason, why the stock market is again looking down after its early raise from 2000 crash. ------------------------------------------------ “War with Iraq, the Economy, and the Stock Market by James K. Glassman (March 17, 2003) The question I get asked most these days is, 'What will be the effect of war with Iraq on the economy and the stock market?' It's a fair question, but it is also disturbing. That's why I was grateful when, during a live discussion Feb. 26 on washingtonpost.com, I received this important variation on the theme from a reader in Baton Rouge, La.: 'Is there room for a moral component in a discussion of investing in a time of war?' the anonymous poster asked, adding: 'Even if this war turns out to be quick and successful in every way, it's going to involve the death of a lot of human beings. This question is a consequence of my seeing some of the 'experts' on financial news shows cheerfully prattling on about how to maximize returns based on a war. I have to say, it turned my stomach. (And please don't assume I'm a knee-jerk anti-war, anti-capitalism type. I'm not.)' Well, I'm not either. And this is how I answered: 'Yes, yes, yes. Morality counts. . . . I also agree with you that a discussion of the economic effects of war is, in one sense, unseemly.' Still, imminent war dominates the markets; it affects every portfolio, every retirement plan, every decision to invest - or not to. We can't ignore the economic and financial effects of war, and we shouldn't feel shabby considering them. But keep the right perspective. While the most likely reaction of the markets to the start of military action is a rise in stock prices, it's far from sure. Yes, stocks soared after the bombing started in the 1991 Gulf War, but history rarely repeats itself precisely - especially if investors think it will. As Michael Driscoll of Bear Stearns, the New York investment firm, recently wrote: 'People are awfully cavalier about the potential for war with Iraq and the commonly held view that stocks will rally and oil prices will plunge as soon as bombs start dropping. That scenario is too pat. The only thing I know for certain is the market will do its best to screw up the most people possible.' Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James & Co. is even more adamant. 'There is . . . little doubt in our mind that the consensus 'call' that once the war begins the economy and stock market will do just fine, will likely prove false.' Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley takes a more nuanced view. In a long, perceptive essay (U.S. Investment Perspectives, Feb. 26), he wonders, even if the war goes well from the start, whether there is 'enough latent buying power for a strong rally.' Since individual investors have been shell-shocked by the long bear market and the accounting scandals, he doubts they will drive a rally, but institutions might. Certainly, the cash is waiting in the wings. Top holdings include Yum Brands (YUM), which owns KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and other restaurant chains and carries a P/E of 12 after losing nearly one-third of its value in the past six months; American Standard (ASD), air conditioning, plumbing and auto brakes, at a P/E of 13; General Dynamics (GD), nuclear subs, business jets and tanks, also at a P/E of 13, and a dividend yield of 2.1 percent; and Ball Corp. (BLL), cans, jars and aerospace technology….. I am ending with two defense stocks, but don't think you can make a fortune just by betting on arms makers. General Dynamics (GD) stock has dropped 35 percent over the past 12 months, and Lockheed Martin (LMT), the world's largest defense contractor, is off 20 percent - while Ball is up 17 percent in a year and has more than tripled since late 2000. Top holdings include Yum Brands (YUM), which owns KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and other restaurant chains and carries a P/E of 12 after losing nearly one-third of its value in the past six months; American Standard (ASD), air conditioning, plumbing and auto brakes, at a P/E of 13; General Dynamics (GD), nuclear subs, business jets and tanks, also at a P/E of 13, and a dividend yield of 2.1 percent; and Ball Corp. (BLL), cans, jars and aerospace technology, at a P/E of 19. I am ending with two defense stocks, but don't think you can make a fortune just by betting on arms makers. General Dynamics (GD) stock has dropped 35 percent over the past 12 months, and Lockheed Martin (LMT), the world's largest defense contractor, is off 20 percent - while Ball is up 17 percent in a year and has more than tripled since late 2000…..” Capitalism Magazine -------------------------------- “What happens when the stock markets go to war? Crushing Iraq may give a short-term fillip to shares, but further ahead the outcome will be far harder to call, warns Richard Wachman Sunday February 2, 2003 The Observer If history is anything to go by, one iron rule can be applied to the stock market at times of war: conflict is good for shares, but only once investors become convinced that they are on the winning side. Take the example of the Korean War, which started in 1950. When it became clear that the West would have to go to the aid of South Korea to defend it from communist troops in the north, share prices fell in the US by 13 per cent, and to a slightly lesser extent in London. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Korean conflict may be instructive: there were real fears that hostilities could be a prelude to a third world war that would pit America and her allies against China and the Soviet Union. An American dealer who now works at a large French bank in London remembers just how frightened people were at the time: 'I can recollect my father sitting at the dinner table and fretting that he would be called up again and find himself in combat, just five years after the end of the Second World War.' As with the current situation in Iraq, it was the fear that a regional war in Korea could spill into something bigger and more dangerous that spooked world markets. And yet, after three weeks of tumbling prices, stocks rallied as it became clear that a third world war would be averted, and that the Korean conflict could be contained. Of course, there are major differences between Korea in the early 1950s and Iraq in 2003. Arguably, the backdrop today is better than it was half a century ago. There appears to be no danger of a military clash now between the world's major powers, and there is only one superpower remaining, the United States. “ http://observer.guardian.co.uk/iraq/story/0,12239,887008,00.html -------------------------------------------- Regarding WTC terrorist attacks I like to suggest the study of the web document I quoted in my last comment or answer as to your questions..( www.threeworldwars.com/world-war-2/ww2-ww3-compared.htm)...and MCI ,Enron scandals were only one of the many structural reasons in the overall damage that struck the US economy. Bhardwaj Garu your argument about crash in the US economy in 2000 is due to the blind faith of investors in Hi-tech companies—is only partially right.. if it is Hi-tech companies only that crashed in the Dot.com bust, how could we substantiate the parallel fall of DOW JONES almost in the same period. Moreover as I want to make it very clear the collapse of stock market is a symptom and that is not the exclusive symptom of US economies ill health. Regarding the rate of unemployment I like to say that in the age of Multinational dominated globalization, US labor is on the defensive. The wages are almost frozen or even declining – low wage employment (popularly called Wal-Martization) is spreading fast – this as we all understand could reduce the purchasing power of the majority Americans... Also when employment market is low for a long period, many job seekers will tend to drop out of the employment market for good… I can’t agree with your argument about core business processes – here I like to suggest the – “The report of the task force on the future of American innovation” (http://www.futureofinnovation.org/PDF/Benchmarks.pdf )- This document talks about the waning edge of the US in innovation and tried to suggest ways out – The point I want to make clear here is that the American economy being in doldrums as to its innovation future mostly may not be able to open new avenues so easily in its employment market in the knowledge based new economy.. Finally – I like to conclude my answer to Bhardwaj Garu’s comments by saying that oil prices alone are not the problem of the US economy. The economic downturn began far before the present raise in oil prices … moreover; expecting that if Bush goes that everything will be all right is also a mistaken notion. Even majority of the Americans (79%) believe that corruption is “equally a problem among both parties”- in this context I like to quote from Gary Younge from the article published in The Hindu news paper on Jan.10th, 2006 which says –“ … so long as big money has bought up both sides of the aisle the poor will never get a fair deal. Never mind the red and blue states: who ever you vote for, the green always wins” I remain with regards…

Posted by: Mr. devabhaktuni paparao At: 23, Jan 2006 2:19:36 PM IST

Hi Maharshi Pragna Garu, My Question to you as to the comment- “there is a distinction between perspective and reality…” – is that… what reality and whose reality are we talking about. Here in, my serious conviction is that, only an individual or a class with no vested interests, alone can reflect the reality in its true dimensions. When a person or class has narrow, truncated interests it will see or distort the realities to suit its interests only. Any privileged and cushioned section of the society worries about its own benefits to the exclusion of the interests of the society as a whole… Most members of such sections (in a private property society) with their interests in exploitation and perpetuation of their privileges could never be honest and realistic. Let me declare here openly that I am partisan... My partisan interests and sympathies lay with the class that has nothing to lose in the form of vested interests –that is the toiling class or in my “jargon” the Proletariat... the only class that is having an incentive in eliminating the inequities and creating a society of equal opportunities- by overturning the class society that bestows privileges on a few at the cost of the majority of the masses is the proletariat- which has nothing to lose but its chains of wage slavery. I do want to state in all seriousness that no arena in an exploitative society is above class division.. In my first article in this site (regarding France) I made it amply clear –the hypocrisy of the tenets of “liberty, equality, and fraternity”. Please do try to read it once again... Because it will be too lengthy to quote it all over here again. Sir, you wrote that I am looking at …the world through the perspective of Leninism. Thank you very much for your observation. I am proud of being a Marxist- because that is the only pristine ideology that was made out of the material of unwavering and uncompromising perspective of the class that has no exploitative, vested interests of which I am talking about. Marxist ideology doesn’t & will never try to hide behind the veneers of “above” class and neutral jargon and vocabulary. Here let me say that I am feeling sad about and still struggling with my petit-Bourgeoisie Limitations over the last 30 years- and also at the same time I am happy that Marxist ideology has liberated me at least partially from the illusions and clutches of petit-bourgeoisie class into which I am born. Here, I want to point out a clear bias in your comment ( to the point of contradicting yourself- as to the statement you made about perspective and reality and the need of them to be in tandem with each other)- Sir, you told that my perspective is biased with Leninism- but, in the same comment (in another paragraph) you stated that- “ Even the darling of the American economy, namely Alan Greenspan could not predict why some things went wrong and what was in store for the future.” ..It looks like you are taking him as a standard benchmark for coming to the conclusions about the US economy. And you have no reservations about the utterances of Greenspan. But, what I want to make clear here is that Alan Greenspan is none but a part of the American ruling classes... With his job and interests deeply entrenched in the vested interests of the American ruling class and its Multinational masters. Otherwise he won’t be and can’t be in that position for years... So, I like to pose a direct question to you- you told Greenspan is the darling of the American economy- my question is- is he the darling of you also in molding your perspectives about the realities of the American economy? Your comment states – that, you are not disputing with the Numbers and figures I gave...But only with the predictions I made. There lie the class interests… Thanking you for your concurrence with my numbers – I like to say, if you read my article once again – most of the predictions I have talked about were quoted from the darlings of the American economy (not just federal bank, but also other experts like the S&P technical expert) and the only job I have done is to conclude them from the “Perspective of Leninism.” Next, about the great depression – let me be brief here- you must refer history once again to find out that- how many intellectuals in US turned leftward during that crisis- only thing that stood between capitalism and collapse than was the “New Deal” of F.D Roosevelt following the ideas of the economist John Maynard Keynes – by turning the economy from its laissez-faire policies towards big govt. and a mixed economy sort of “Welfare State”- and then here I have to make another point – because many intellectuals & scholars took to the Marxist “mindset” in 1930’s- later after WW2 it became a compulsion for the American Ruling classes to witch-hunt the progressive intellectuals in the 1950’s in the form of McCarthyism .. Moving to the next point, your argument regarding Russian and Chinese revolutions-Here I want to request you to read a book titled “The natural history of revolution” authored by Lyford P. Edwards –in 1927... (if you have a problem in procuring the book-because it is out of print now- I love to present you the Xerox copy of it- if you intend to read it). In fact, before many great revolutions common mans lot improved for a time and created hope in him that his lot could be improved given there is a change in the social set up. The abrupt end of these aroused hopes in the form of economic catastrophe- it is that which has created the revolutionary outbursts. Only a person with hope in the opportunity of improvement in his living conditions will be able to rise to the call for total social change... But not the utterly destitute one. Then your question of: - preference to change the ruling party by the people. You quoted the cases of Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Brazil... my answer to this is- of the four countries you quoted 3 are Latin American ones. Here, every body knows pretty well the leftward turn of events in Brazil and the definite wind of change that is blowing in Mexico (to the left.) (I have no clue as to the Peruvian case). I believe that revolutions not only emanate out of the barrel of the gun- they could as well be the ballot box overturns (particularly in this age of changing balance of forces in the classes and their political equations.) of the fate of the ruling classes – In a ballot box revolution- if the defeated class tries to sabotage the people’s verdict- then it is the sort of Venezuelan lesson that class will be forced to learn. About the American outsourcing aspect and the other things you wrote- here in I cite the web article… Particularly its first and second paragraphs… (http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3622/is_200410/ai_n9457056). If you are keen on the above matter more- this website and my comment regardig it in the latest answer to Malakpet Rowdy Garu may be of use… (http://www.futureofinnovation.org/PDF/Benchmarks.pdf). Lastly, with a request from my side-you wrote that “… We have to create an alternative economy that is good for the wealth and health of our earth & the people. It’s absolutely possible too…”- Here my request is…please suggest a clear program for the materialization of the kind of economy you are proposing... Bye, Regards D. Papa Rao

Posted by: Mr. devabhaktuni paparao At: 23, Jan 2006 2:14:35 PM IST

Thanx for the elaborate reply Paparao garu, it has been informative definitely. ( By the way I created this id for the discussion boards and I can be called Bhardwaj, if you wish to) But I want to make a couple of observations - Trend of US Dow Jones rise based upon the blood and tears of common people in Afghanistan and Iraq which became the Bread & Butter for the US stock market. ---------------------------------------------------- This is a sweeping statement and you seen to be taking a very strong stance Paparao garu. As I mentioned earlier, many of the gainers are DOW JONES are not related to construction and the even the DOW JONES rise after the 2000 crash started well before the IRAQ war. In Afghan, there is no reconstruction work of any significance _____________________________ As far as I understand (correct me if I am wrong), it is NASDAQ that mostly trades Technology and Blue-Chip stocks and it crashed because of the Dot Com Bust (And never recovered). DOW, on the other hand deals with all kinds of shares. I do agree with you that NASDAQ would never attain its past glory because, I insist, because, the investors are still wary about the technology companies. (I'm sure you would laugh at me if I say that the main reason for 2002 crash is not the WTC Terrorist attack. It might have affected the economy but the major damage has been done by MCI and Enron scandals that hit the economy hard) I would perhaps conclude that the Crash in the US economy in 2000 is due to the blind faith of investors in hi-tech companies and their crash incurred huge losses onto the investors. Also, the recent report says that the rate of unemployment is on the decline. About outsourcing, it is true that it may result in loss of jobs initially - (Please let me tell you in this context that the core business processes are not usually outsourced). But once the process is set and the companies start concentraing ontheir core businesses, the employment level would actually raise and we do see that happening in the US. It all now depends on the Oil Prices. If the Oil Prices go down the American Economy would grow and otehrwise we donno whaz gonna happen. But as I see it ( Correct me if I am wrong), as long as we have George W Bush at the helm of the affairs, the oil prices would continue to rise obvioulsy because of his core business happens to be oil.

Posted by: Malakpet Rowdy At: 20, Jan 2006 6:31:43 PM IST

Many questions … thank you for your patience in allowing me so much of time for reply to the questions.. I am deeply involved in some personal issues to reply at the earliest.. Anyway I regret this delay in answering the questions. Thank you.. Now about my answers.. Firstly, before I go into the main discussion, let me highlight the point around which most of the questions were posed and were revolving. This is the question raised by Malakpet Rowdy garu regarding the U.S stock market. If we see the 3 or 4 comments made by Malakpet Rowdy garu their core boils down to the single aspect of the share market index. The questions that followed his one mostly do revolve around this aspect only. Here I like to believe that leaving aside this single point we all have agreement on the basic trends in the us economy which I talked about (I will answer the Questions posed by Mr. Maharshi Pragna Separately). Before I go to Elucidate my point as to this questions let me admit my failure in elaborating upon and substantiating my point of view. I bypassed the crucial steps in the process by which I came to those conclusions. Over and above that I regret my exclusive focus on NASDAQ. As to the NASDAQ I want to be very clear in sticking to the statement I made about the American share market. Let me remind that the NASDAQ hit its peek of 5048.62 on March 10th, 2000. But as of today (16 th, Jnauary, 2006) it is – 2317.04 this might definitely look like a recovery compared to its low of 1,114.11 on oct. 9th 2002. Still as we could observe that January 16th figure is not even ranking to half its peak of March 10th, 2000. If any body wants to believe that despite this fact as the index is raising still it will recover its old glory I don’t want to vouch with them. If we borrow from the mathematical calculations done by Paul R. La Monica at CNN money on March 9th, 2004- this is the sort of picture that emerges – “If the NASDAQ were to surge 50% a year (like it did in 2003) for the next 3 years it would not reach 5000 again until some time in early 2006(We pretty well Know that this has not happened definitely as of today-). Of course a 50% increase in the NASDAQ is not exactly the norm. Even if the NASDAQ has several consecutive years of 20% gains- which would still be above the normal historical rate of return for stocks—it would not hit 5000 again until the beginning of 2009.” If we see in this light of this argument and assess the latest situation of NASDAQ (16th January, 2006) it is only 2,317.04. It means NASDAQ did not appreciate even 20% over the level it reached on March 9th, 2004 (nearly 2k mark). Here I want to make another point clear- The Dow Jones index is a representation of 30 blue-chip US stocks , where as NASDAQ composite is a broad based market index that encompasses about almost 3000-4000 issues. But by making this point I am not trying to deny the overall reliability of Dow Jones in anyway. However my deep conviction and even the objective factors do point towards the collapse of the entire us share market (I talked about it in the 2nd para of my article quoting from S&P’ technical expert) in the near future. As a substantiation of this point I am presenting here an entire article down loaded from the internet ( Written by Jim Pinto in San Diego Mensan magazine on April 2003 ) Before I present that article to you I want to be very clear that it is not only this single article that was predicting the parallels between the boom of 1920’s and the ultimate collapse of 1929 (Great depression)- This assessment began many years back- I remember having read an article by the Businessweek magazines economics editor Mandell Around the year 2000 itself (Drawing the parallels between 1920’s and the present times) -0-0-0- Lessons from The Great Depression By : Jim Pinto,San Diego, CA.USA If the stock market dips again in 2003, this will be the first time since 'The Great Depression' (1929-1932). In both periods, prior to the bust, Americans enjoyed astonishing prosperity, novel technologies generated a boom, there was faith that the economic system had permanently changed things for the better and the stock market rose to unanticipated heights before it crashed. The 9/11 attacks and fear of terrorism have deepened the parallels. A version of this article was published by:San Diego Mensan magazine, April 2003 The US stock markets greeted 2003 with a healthy jump. But alas that didn’t last, and the economy remains depressed, reflecting continued uncertainty. During 2002, the S&P 500 index dipped by 22.1%, completing a third consecutive year of negative returns (-9.1% in 2000, -11.9% in 2001). If the S&P also dips in 2003, for the fourth year in a row, this will be the first time this has happened since 'The Great Depression'-the last great deflationary event in America (1929-1932). The stock market boomed in the 1920s. Prices reached levels measured as a multiple of corporate earnings, which made no sense in terms of traditional rules of thumb for valuation. At the market peak in September 1929 40% of stocks were trading at prices above fundamental values for no reason other than that most investors thought the stock market would go up simply because it kept going up. Sound familiar? By 1928 the Federal Reserve was worried about the inflated level of the stock market, fearing that the 'bubble' of stock prices might burst suddenly and recession might result. By 1929, it seemed better to try to 'cool off' the market by raising interest rates, to make borrowing money for stock speculation costly, to accept the risk that this might also bring recession. All policy options seemed to have unfavorable consequences. In the 1920s new technologies helped propel the predepression boom. The spread of electricity stimulated markets for new appliances: irons, toasters, stoves, washers, vacuum cleaners and radios. Along with the spread of movies, radio’s arrival fostered a new national pop culture and politics. Even more transforming were automobiles-from 1920 to 1929, car registrations tripled. The hunger for mobility spurred feeder industries, from filling stations to road construction to motels. Mutual funds, then known as investment trusts, were booming. Stock market setbacks were temporary; people bought on the dips, and warnings about speculative excesses were dismissed as old-fashioned. Sound familiar? Fast forward to the present. In the late 1990s the Internet and the dotcom boom, the rapid rise of new-age companies like Enron, the success of merger combinations like Worldcom and the seemingly unstoppable growth of conglomerates like Tyco fueled a period of stock-market euphoria. When Alan Greenspan was sounding his warnings in 1999, it sounded remarkably like a déjà vu... In both periods, prior to the bust, Americans enjoyed astonishing prosperity. In both, novel technologies generated a boom. In both, there was faith that the economic system had permanently changed things for the better. In both, the stock market rose to unanticipated heights before it crashed. The SEC itself was formed in response to the excesses that caused market-crash of 1929. The new, stiffened post-Enron SEC rules are still playing out. The Great Depression caused enormous hardship for tens of millions of people and the failure of a large fraction of the nation’s banks, businesses and farms. It transformed national politics by vastly expanding government, which was increasingly expected to stabilize the economy and to prevent suffering. Social Security, unemployment insurance, and federal family assistance all began in the thirties. At its nadir, the Depression was collective insanity. Workers were idle because firms would not hire them for work; firms would not hire workers because they saw no market for goods; and there was no market for goods because workers had no incomes to spend. Globalism too was born in the pre-depression era. Cheap foreign labor lowered costs and improved profits, which drove imports of foreign made products and pushed labor offshore. This caused a decline in domestic employment and eventually exacerbated depression problems to the extent that there was a significant backlash and the start of labor-union protectionism. Now, in the US in February 2003, total non-farm payroll employment fell by about 300,000, with unemployment at 5.8%. Job losses were widespread; 8.5 million people were unemployed and nearly 1.9 million people had been out of work for 27 weeks. There is no doubt that some of this domestic upheaval was caused by job-shifts to lower-cost countries. Already a significant share of manufactured goods is sourced in China and the third-world. But that’s just half the story. Many third-world countries are competing to replace US knowledge workers as well, turning out hordes of accounting and engineering graduates each year from universities that are rapidly growing in size and quality. As knowledge-work becomes more network-centric and less location-dependent, more and more work that was traditionally “white-collar” is being shifted offshore. China already makes more than 50% of the cameras sold worldwide, 30% of the air conditioners and televisions, 25% of the washing machines, and nearly 20% of the refrigerators. A private Chinese company now accounts for 40% of all microwave ovens sold in Europe. A city in eastern China makes 70% of the world’s metal cigarette lighters. In 2002, China’s foreign trade increased an amazing 21% when that of most others declined. There is no question that China is exporting deflation to the rest of the world. In the 1930s protectionism and political upheaval destroyed globalism; whether the current trend continues unchecked remains to be seen. There is yet another eerie similarity between the two periods. The 9/11 attacks and the subsequent fear of terrorism have deepened the parallels between present-day America and the America of the 1920s. In the early 20s, Americans also felt assaulted by alien forces-radicalism and Bolshevism imported mainly by immigrants. There was fear of terrorism then too, though its impact was perhaps less pervasive. We know what happened to the 20s-the depression lasted 10 years; the 90s endgame is still unfolding. www.jimpinto.com/writings/depression.html. -0-0-0- Even if we are to disagree with this. now let us see the real reasons and pitfalls in the recovery of Dow Jones of late …If we observe the Dow Jones industrial average it has fallen almost uninterruptedly till March 2000. After that the fluctuations began… The downward trend of the Dow Jones was very marked after 2000…than as we could observe it is after terrorist attacks and the consequent Afghan War the Dow Jones recovered from its downward direction from 2002 (around July)..and the same trend continued after Iraq war of 2003.. What does this indicate? It is an undeniable fact that war’s and reconstruction work have saved the American stock market from its total collapse. Even the recent Hurricanes in USA and the reconstruction work are boosting the housing economy though in a small way…This is the sort of destruction that is sought by American ruling classes to save their skin. … So, I hope that Malakpet Rowdy garu and other friends will understand and won’t acknowledge this trend of US Dow Jones rise based upon the blood and tears of common people in Afghanistan and Iraq which became the Bread & Butter for the US stock market. But, of late (as I quoted in my article from S&P economist) the Us stock market is showing signs of collapse by the end of 2006… this is because of the almost loosing war in Iraq and also the failure of US corporations to restore the Iraqi oil production to even to half the pre-war levels.. Here I request my friends to refer the website... www.threeworldwars.com/world-war-2/ww2-ww3-compared.htm particularly its Looking Ahead: American Hyper-Inflation - D. Papa Rao

Posted by: Mr. devabhaktuni paparao At: 20, Jan 2006 2:34:46 PM IST

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