Poll surveys put parties on mat - TeluguPeople.com News

Hyderabad: Going by the multiplicity of poll surveys and their divergent outcomes, one wonders whether time has come to conduct a survey on the agencies which conduct poll surveys to determine their motive.

Questions are being raised over the credibility and efficacy of the opinion surveys as two polls have given different projects for Andhra Pradesh, adding to the confusion.

A survey conducted by AC Neilsen-Marg for the television channel NTV, predicted that YSR Congress Party would win 19 to 21 Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra while another survey, aired by CNN-IBN network on Tuesday night said that it could get in the range of 9 to 15.

The AC Neilsen Survey said that Telugu Desam Party would get only 4 to 6 LS seats while the CNN-IBN predicted 13 to 19 for the main opposition party.

"Surveys conducted by AC Nielsen and CSDS-Lokniti for two different television channels predict a contrasting outcome of general election in Andhra Pradesh"

According to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti election tracker and seat projections made by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar, the Congress faces rout in the State and is likely to win just 4 to 8 seats.

The TDP has resurrected itself, showing a slight lead over the YSRC Party and will emerge victorious in 13-19 while YSRCP could bag 9-15 seats with the TRS ending up with 4-8. In terms of vote share, the CNN IBN projected that Congress would get about 18 per cent of votes, YSRCP 21 percent and TDP 29 per cent.

The Neilsen survey estimated that YSR Congress would get 48 per cent, TDP 37.5 per cent and Congress 5 per cent of votes in Seemandhra region. Though the surveys were conducted in the same region, the results provided by the agencies varied vastly.

And, both the surveys were conducted around the same time.Political analyst N Bhaskar Rao said that survey agencies were driven by profits and trying to keep the political leaders in good humor to seek favours.

He said that some agencies were rehashing the previous surveys and giving them to the political parties. If surveys are done seriously, the results should largely match, he said.

The political parties are using the "manipulated" survey results to boost their prospects in the elections and influence voters, he lamented. In fact, the agencies were not adopting proper methodologies and taking enough samples.

As a result, they do not reflect the mood of the people. Most of the times, the sample size is small and does not include cross section of the society.

The CNN-IBN estimates for the entire State give TDP 29 per cent and the YSRCP 21 per cent votes. The Congress is expected to get 18 per cent, the TRS 13 per cent, the BJP 8 per cent. In Telangana region, the Congress is likely to get 35 per cent votes and the TRS is expected to get 34 per cent votes respectively.

The BJP is likely to get 10 per cent, the TDP 13 per cent and the others 8 per cent votes respectively. The TDP seems to have taken a lead over the YSRCP in AP. The YSRCP is projected to get 33 per cent votes and the TDP is likely to get 39 per cent of the votes.

The Congress and BJP are expected to get 7 per cent each and the others are likely to get 14 per cent of the votes in the Lok Sabha elections. According to the survey, the TDP is doing particularly well in the coastal part of Seemandhra and the YSR Congress is leading in Rayalaseema region.

In coastal AP, the TDP is likely to get 43 per cent votes and the YSRCP is likely to get 29 per cent votes. In Rayalaseema region, YSRCP is expected to get 41 per cent votes and the TDP is likely to get 31 per cent votes.