MIM likely to align with YSR Congress

HYDERABAD: Did MIM arrive at an understanding with the YSR Congress well before it severed ties with the Congress?

Information emanating from various quarters suggests that the minority party will have a tie-up, official or unofficial, with Jagan Mohan Reddy's party for the next general elections, whenever they are held.

The reasons for the MIM's drift away from the Congress are not difficult to understand: a) the continuinig slide in the fortunes of the national party in the state; and b) the need for it to expand its footprint beyond Hyderabad in case the state is divided and a Rayala-Telangana comes into being.

Muslims are a sizeable voting bloc in several constituencies in Telangana and Rayalaseema.

Having by and large confined its political activity to the state capital so far, MIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi is now speaking in terms of touring the entire state to explain to Muslims how the late YSR was a friend and the present dispensation an enemy of minorities.

According to sources, apart from the Hyderabad Lok Sabha seat, which has been with the MIM for more than 40 years, it is likely that the Majlis will, for the first time, make a serious bid to wrest the Secunderabad Lok Sabha seat too, with help from the YSR Congress.

It has also set its eyes on quite a few constituencies in Telangana and Rayalaseema such as Bhainsa in Adilabad, Nizamabad, Zaheerabad in Medak district and Muslimdominated constituencies in Kadapa, Kurnool and Anantapur districts.

From its current strength of one in the Lok Sabha and seven in the Assembly, it would be a huge leap for the MIM if it musters a number with two digits in the Assembly.

For the YSR Congress, it would suit its purpose to leave a few seats to the MIM in return for the party's support in a large number of constituencies.

In more than 90 out of the 294 Assembly constituencies, Muslims account for more than 10 per cent of the vote. Of that number, over 60 have a Muslim vote of more than 15 per cent.

Had members of the ruling party and the government's intelligence machinery kept their eyes and ears open, they would have sensed the pre-Diwali shock delivered by Owaisi, who found the Old City temple issue a good ruse to his plan into action.

As early as in June this year, soon after the YSR Congress swept the byelections in Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra, MIM MLA Syed Amin ul Jafri reasoned that the results clearly indicated a shift of the Muslim vote away from the Congress and towards Jagan's party.

In one of his write-ups, he pointed out how YSR Congress nominees won with massive majorities in constituencies where Muslims are numerically strong -- Rayachoti (24 per cent Muslims), Anantapur (21 per cent), Allagadda and Rajampet (12 per cent each).

According to him, Muslims believe that whether it was the 4 per cent quota for the minorities or fee reimbursement, they were programmes launched by YSR and not the Congress.