By-polls: Propectus of Jagan camp bleak

Hyderabad: Though it is still not clear if by-elections will indeed take place, leaders of both Congress and the TDP have started making moves in the constituencies. With a majority of the 29 belonging to the Congress, the ruling party will have to pick new faces.

But the one party that appears to be upbeat is the TDP which hopes to benefit from the division of the vote between the Congress and Jagan's candidates. The TDP is not expecting a repeat of the Kadapa by-election in any of these segments.

Adding strength to indications that some of the Jagan loyalists are having second thoughts, reports from the ground indicate that it is not going to be easy for them to get reelected.

The Jagan factor appears not to be working in Telangana and parts of Coastal Andhra while being strong in Kadapa and Nellore districts in Rayalaseema. In such an event, the candidates' merits, local factors, and the caste factor are likely to play a role.

Parakal (Warangal) Incumbent: Konda Surekha Amidst the strong Telangana sentiment, it is going to be an uphill task for Surkkha. She has in fact not submitted a fresh resignation letter along with other fellow Jagan loyalists.

Former TRS MP Vinod could be the most likely candidate on behalf of the separatist party which is expected to benefit from the statehood sentiment.

Bhadrachalam (Khammam) Incumbent: K Satyavati The situation is difficult for the incumbent in this Telangana constituency, a CPM stronghold for years. Satyavati managed to win the last time largely on account of the lack of a combined effort by the TDP and CPM. She is accused by locals of having neglected them ever since. Ex- CPM MLA Rajaiah is the most likely TDP-CPM nominee.

Secunderabad Incumbent: Jayasudha Uncertain about her prospects, Jayasudha did not resign along with other J campers and instead followed the path of Surekha and Satyavati. In fact, information suggests that she may not even contest if she has to resign and a byelection is needed. Fight will be between TDP (Talasani Srinivas Yadav) and TRS (most likely, K Padma Rao).

Allagadda (Kurnool) Incumbent: B Sobha Nagi Reddy More than the YSR sympathy wave, it is the Bhuma family's popularity which influences voters here. Though accused of often switching loyalties, Sobha Nagi Reddy still has an edge, according to locals. The Bhuma family was initially in the TDP, moved to the PRP and now joined the J bandwagon.

Panyam (Kurnool) Incumbent: K Rambhupal Reddy Like Sobha, Rambhupal Reddy is said to have an edge but it is not going to be easy. The segment is divided between Congress and TDP voters and it remains to be seen whether Rambhupal will be able to take the Congress vote. Voters also doubt his loyalty to YSRC. The TDP might consider Byreddy Rajasekhara Reddy.

Yemmiganur (Kurnool) Incumbent: Y Chennakesava Reddy. Another doubtful case. Yemmiganur is dominated by followers of Kotla Vijaya Bhaskar Reddy who backed Chennakesava Reddy last time. But they are unlikely to support him as Jagan's nominee. Which is why Chennakesava Reddy was in a dilemma till recently whether to join YSRC. TDP's BV Mohan Reddy, an ex-minister, is no pushover.

Mantralayam (Kurnool) Incumbent: Y Bala Nagi Reddy A stronghold of TDP for long and a constituency retained by it even in 2009. Bala Nagi Reddy is unlikely to split the TDP vote significantly and it is also doubtful if he would be able to mobilise Congress voters to vote for him.

Incumbent: B Gurunath Reddy The incumbent is expected to retain the seat, largely on account of the family's popularity more than the YSR sympathy or the J factor. Gurunath Reddy has maintained touch with his constituents. His brother, B Narayana Reddy, was a three-time MLA and enjoys a clean image.

Rayadurg (Anantapur) Incumbent: K Ramachandra Reddy The scene here is different though it falls in the same Anantapur district. The chances of K Ramachandra Reddy are not bright, given the lack of rapport with constituents. Considered close to the discredited Gali brothers of Karnataka.

Puthalapattu (Chittoor) Incumbent: P Ravi The only MLA whose support Jagan could get from CM's Chittoor district. Like most J loyalists, Ravi too faces the negative image of a legislator who has not kept in touch with voters. The YSR sympathy factor is also not strong and not many are questioning the CBI raids against Jagan.

Rayachoti (Kadapa) Incumbent: G Srikanth Reddy Most of the MLAs loyal to Jagan in his district do not seem to carry a positive image among people. Only a strong YSR wave should see them through. Srikant Reddy will get a renomination but is expected to face stiff fight and it will not be surprising if the TDP benefits from the vote split.

Railway Kodur (Kadapa) Incumbent: K Srinivasulu It is an SC-reserved constituency and Srinvasulu has not done himself any good by keeping aloof from the people. Caste-wise, Naidus are backing TDP, Balijas may back Congress while the Reddy vote will be split. Dr Ajay Babu, the unsuccessful TDP candidate last time, is the likely choice.

Rajampet (Kadapa) Incumbent: A Amarnath Reddy The popularity of Amarnath Reddy is waning. General impression: he took care of himself rather than the people. If at all, the image of YSR has to carry him through. Congress could look towards Prabhavatamma and TDP is expected to field former legislator Madan Mohan Reddy.

Jammalamadugu (Kadapa) Incumbent: C Adinarayana Reddy This is one segment where the victory of the incumbent is seen as a certainty. Adinarayana Reddy has good reputation among the people. Combined with the YSR-Jagan sympathy factor, it is unlikely that either the Congress or TDP candidates will give him a tough fight.