Congress testing KCR's resolve Hyderabad: Sakala Janula Samme (SJS) has entered into the second month but still there is no sign of resolving the stir that has crippled the normal life not only in Telangana, but entire South India.
A war of nerves between Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) chief K Chandrasekhar Rao and the Congress high command has now become the new problem for early resolution of Telangana tangle.
First, let us analyze the impact of the Sakala Janula Samme . Contrary to the expectations of one and all, this strike has opened the eyes of all those who took lightly the grit and perseverance of people of Telangana.
The Seemandhra ministers, MLAs and MPs have earlier underestimated the commitment and stamina of employees of the T-region. But, now they are shocked to see this unrelenting resolve.
Secondly, the UPA Top brass too thought that government employees and public sector staff like power utilities, RTC and Singareni Coal miners would not be able to sustain the strike beyond a week. But, now they have changed their views and understood the depth of the feelings, the issue of separate Telangana can evoke among the people of Telangana.
In the last two weeks, the Congress core committee which is known to have met 12 times and spent about 40 hours to discuss this issue, has almost come to the conclusion that Telangana cannot be an issue to be brushed under the carpet or postponed like in the past.
As a MP from this region put it:, 'even Pranab Mukherjee expressed his surprise over the will power of Telangana people this time'. The discussions have picked up momentum after Sonia Gandhi resumed her routine duties at the party high command since October 2nd.
Indications from congress party sources point to a near unanimity among the top congress leadership: - That the time has come to create Telangana, and bring normalcy to the situation in the region as early as possible. Now, the Congress leadership is engaged with a major question?
How to claim credit for this historical decision and how to convert it into an electoral gain, i.e.by 2014? It is an open secret that congress wants the TRS led by K Chandrasekhar Rao to join it and be a part of the winning team when elections are held two and half years from now.
But, the TRS chief, being a shrewd politician that he is, is not ready to wind up his business immediately. KCR is known to have told the congress bosses that he was ready to join the ruling party, if a clear cut road map for formation of Telangana is announced.
'Pahle Aap - Pahle Aap,' type of situation is prevailing between the Congress and KCR now. It is a sort of one-upmanship, but it cannot be wished away in present day politics.
KCR wants to keep his options opendepending on the emerging situation in mind. He does want to put all his eggs in the congress basket. If congress fails to perform in next elections, he wants to sail with the winner.
For this, he wants to assure congress that he is ready to back UPA, or for that matter, join UPA even now, but not merge his party like Chiranjeevi did with his PRP.
On the other end, the congress party is clear on this. The Congress party wants KCR to merge his party with it now. Otherwise, he will be treated like a rival and every effort will be made to marginalize him even before Telangana roadmap is spelt out.
If this is to happen, the high command is in search of someone who is capable of doing what late YSR had done it for opposition parties through his famous 'Operation Aakarsh' after 2009 elections.
This requires even a change of chief minister, if Kiran Kumar Reddy fails to do the job – of marginalizing KCR and wooing pro- Telangana elements.
In such a case, many other names including deputy chief minister Damodar Rajanarsimha, or one of the eligible Reddy leaders are doing the rounds as successors to Kiran Kumar Reddy.
Meanwhile, Congress high command has a staggered process of announcing a roadmap for formation of Telangana. According to reliable sources from Delhi, the high command will first announce its policy in favour of creating separate Telangana by the end of October or early November.
This will be a major step, and an irrevocable move towards forming the state, whatever the time it takes to realize the demand. If Congress takes a decisive stand in favour of Telangana, then the new state demand would have two-thirds majority in Parliament, as main Opposition BJP has already took the stand long ago.
Once, the Congress decides to create Telangana, all other parties and forces that have objections to it too will fall in line in due course. With this decision, congress would have rectified its historical blunder – of merging developed Andhra with Telangana in 1956.
And wait, Congress is unlikely to do this in one straight step. The high command is well aware that the popular demand of the region is in favour of forming Telangana, with borders that existed on Oct 31, 1956 – the original Telangnaa with Hyderabad as its capital.
Aware that it is not that simple to restore a state that existed 56 years ago in one click, the Congress high command might try to accommodate several other demands/ suggestions that have come during the interregnum.
One should not forget that Sri Krishna Committee itself suggested some weird ideas – though none of them may be workable. Moreover, if pre-1956 Telangana is to be formed, the region will have to lose out Bhadrachalam, a major pilgrim centre of Lord Rama.
Besides, this town is strategically important to Telangana as it is the venue of controversial Polavaram project across Godavari River as reservoir is built on its side. Whoever controls Bhadrachalam will have a control over Polavaram project, for good or bad.
But, a proposal of forming Rayala Telangana calling it Telangana Pradesh – with all four districts of Rayalaseema clubbed with Telangana – may be a stop gap arrangement to initially carve out a separate state.
Then, the Congress might go for a Second States Reorganization Commission, (the 2nd SRC) in tune with its earlier CWC decision, with a specific reference of division of AP as well as demands from elsewhere in India.
In that case, consolidation of reorganizing Andhra Pradesh or splitting it into two or even three states might take a longer time may be two to three years from now. There is also an idea of clubbing only Kurnool with Telangana – and call it Telangana State.
This will help Congress on two counts – first to win over the four crore people of Telanagana to its side, and then to wipe out two major political opponents – led by Chandrababu Naidu TDP and Jagan in the Coastal Andhra state leaving the two powerful rivals battling for power in a new state of Rayalaseema sans Kurnool.
In the meanwhile, Hyderabad city may be continued as the common capital for both the regions of Telangana and Andhra, until Andhra State develops its own capital over five or less years. There may be several other financial and legal agreements between two regions. But, they are all minor issues compared to the division of the state.
It is to be watched as to who will play what game in the next few weeks. As the situation is reaching a climax, every leader worth his or her salt would try to gain some mileage out of the developments.
As per the indications, congress high command has prepared a story and script to suit its political goals – of consolidating its hold on all the regions. A future Telangana Bill may be introduced in Parliament anytime before 2014, but the actual date of notification creating a new state coming to life may be scheduled sometime after the next general elections.
Even then, the Congress is likely to spring some surprises – of making a Dalit or Muslim as chief minister or deputy chief minister to score a brownie point at the hustings.
News Posted: 17 October, 2011
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