Jagan's arrest is imminent, but when?

Hyderabad: Now that the by-elections to seven assembly seats loom large on the diffident Congress government led by N Kiran Kumar Reddy, the focus of everyone is only on one issue- and that is - when will the CBI arrest YSR Congress party leader and Kadapa MP YS Jagan Mohan Reddy?

Everybody knows that Jagan is listed as accused number one in 'The illegal assets case'. While some sections among the Congress leaders are skeptical about Jagan being arrested in the near future many others are also asking whether the arrest will happen during the budget session or late, now it appears all the suspense is only about timing of his arrest.

Some reliable sources in the CBI said that the 'CBI is supposed to file its chargesheet in the Jagan assets case by April 2nd and they have no other choice except arresting him.

Since Jagan is listed as the accused no. 1 of the case, he surely will have to be arrested. Because, already the other accused being A2, A3, A4, A5 are behind the bars.

If the CBI fails to arrest Jagan by the time it has to file its chargesheet against all those already in custody, as otherwise, the entire case will be in jeopardy as the other arrested persons accused of the charges for colluding with Jagan will be seeking a similar luxury of being set free.

'This is wholly untenable as the CBI does not want to weaken its own case at the stage of filing its charge-sheet. They will arrest Jagan, because, he is the A-1. But, the timing may vary, from the second week of March to the last week of March. One thing is sure whether Jagan will be arrested or the case will be lost by April 2nd,' said a top retired CBI official.

The campaigning for the by-polls that got notified from 22nd February onwards will however begin in right earnest from the first week of March. But Jagan has preferred to contest only one seat and that happens to be Kovvuru in Nellore District.

Many political observers are commending Jagan's strategy of not putting up candidates in Telangana by-polls as it benefits him in many ways.

Like all other parties, Jagan too will be touring Kovvuru from where his lone candidate Nallapureddy Prasanna Kumar Reddy will be trying his re-election.

Both ruling congress and opposition TDP are struggling to defeat Prasanna as he enjoys double advantage of being a veteran in his own constituency and also now benefiting tremendously from the Jagan factor.

So, if the CBI arrests Jagan before 18th March or before the by-polls, Prasanna Kumar Reddy and late YSR's widow Vijayamma will together go to the people and take advantage of their sympathy for the Late YSR and tell the voters that the Congress and TDP have joined hands to erase the welfare schemes launched by late YSR by trying to defeat Prasanna.

The potential arrest of Jagan might further jeopardize whatever prospects congress has here in Kovvuru. Even the TDP is talking about the impending arrest of Jagan anytime from now and unable to assess the outcome of public reaction towards such a move, the party is confused as much as the congress leaders are.

What can happen if Jagan is not arrested before bypolls? There is another possibility of the CBI arresting Jagan only after March 18th bypolls, but before April 1.

In such a case, Jagan will be allowed to campaign for his party in the by-elections and if his party wins from Kovvuru, arresting him will be a bigger political risk to the premier investigating agency.

The CBI will be accused of arresting a leader who enjoyed the support of masses at the diktats of the congress leadership. The congress may care little about public perception but there is every possibility of violence in some parts of the state if preventive law and order measures are not taken care.

Not long ago, when some TV Channels telecasted a story about 'sabotage in YSR's Chopper crash' there were many attacks on some corporate giants. Such is the fury of people when political atmosphere is surcharged.

The police top brass appears to be anticipating and also sounding confident about tackling any outbreak of violence as and when Jagan is arrested.

A senior Congress leader drew an analogy between the arrest of Jagan and that of Kanimozhi. The DMK Rajya Sabha member was arrested by CBI only after the results of Tamil Nadu assembly elections were announced on May 13th, and after knowing that the DMK was voted out of power.

If similar standards were used here too, then Jagan will be arrested only after March 21, when the results get announced. But, that may not work out here, because, YSR Congress is sure to win at Kovvuru, which in turn might tie the hands of CBI from putting the Kadapa MP behind the bars.

'You cannot expect the CBI to act on purely political lines, deciding the timing of arrest of an important leader based on the outcome of some by-elections,' a senior CBI official commented.

This CBI official's logic seems to be reasonable. But, in Andhra Pradesh politics, since last eight months, the interests of the ruling party are directly linked to the three major cases filed by CBI.

In all the three major criminal cases ' Interestingly, all these case are directly or indirectly aimed against Jagan. Be it the Jagan's illegal assets case, Emaar'MGF land embezzlement case and the Obulapuram Mining Company's (OMC) illegal mining case the only glaring indicator that is clearly visible is the congress high command desire to pin down Jagan at any cost.

In the other two cases, the accused no 1 ' Gali Janardhan Reddy (in OMC case) and the accused no. 1- senior IAS officer BP Acharya (in Emaar- MGF case) are already behind the bars.

Undoubtedly, the CBI will arrest Jagan in the (Jagan's illegal assets case) but the CBI is taking its own time to frame charges against Jagan and arrest him, only after taking into custody all other smaller guys, like Sunil Reddy and Vijaya Sai Reddy.

Will Jagan's arrest be a trump card to the ruling Congress and TDP or some sort of nemesis for both? The future course starting from electoral outcome of UP polls to the event of Kiran Kumar Reddy government's survival in the coming months will be able to indicate whether it was right decision or not.

Jagan prepared for his arrest

Jagan is already mentally ready to face the arrest anytime soon. Addressing his party legislature party meeting (attended by 17 Congress MLAs who had violated their whips and voted against Kiran Kumar Reddy government on Dec 5th, 2011 and eight MLCs), at his Lotus Pond residence on Feb 12th, Jagan told them that he might be arrested anytime by the CBI.

'They may arrest me, seeing my popularity and the surging crowds at my meetings. But, don't worry, nothing will happen to us. If I am arrested, my mother and our party Honorary President (Vijayamma) will lead you,' Jagan told his legislators and close confidants.

His party leader Bajireddy Govardhan said: 'Jagan appeared very confident and is not afraid of his arrest'. So, in case Jagan is arrested before the by-elections, his mother Vijayamma will take charge and conduct the campaigning in Kovvuru.

YSR Congress party leaders are giving final touches to the strategy of her campaigning, in case she had to go to public. 'We are ready for any situation. Vijayamma's going to people will invoke tremendous sympathy wave for us,' YSR Congress party spokesman Gattu Ramachandra Rao said.

The YSR Congress leaders are gearing up for any eventuality. If Jagan is there for the by-poll campaign, it is okay, otherwise also it is better. Even if he is arrested after March 21st and before April 2nd, he will not be available for the by-elections to the seats of 17 of his group MLAs who had defied the whip.

The ruling Congress is aspiring to project Jagan as a notorious money maker and blame him for the large scale corruption that took place during his father YSR's tenure.

That way, the Congress wants to keep voters to its side, and at the same time, threaten its MLAs with dire consequences, if they migrate to YSR Congress, after the Kovvuru by-poll result.

However, political analysts are expressing different views on this. 'How can ruling congress party wash off its hands for the so-called large scale corruption of late YSR? Everyone knew well that a part of his corruption money has gone to the Congress party's central funds. So, the high command too was a beneficiary of his corruption, not just Jagan alone,' remarked a senior political analyst.

Similarly, how can the CBI and the Congress blame Jagan alone for what has happened during YSR's time, when almost entire cabinet of the late CM is continuing in power and none of the ministers is arrested.

YSR Congress Party is ready with its strategy when the then dalit minister from Telangana Dr P Shankar Rao, whose letter was treated as writ petition by the High Court which subsequently ordered enquiry into Jagan's assets case.

The same dalit leader alleged that (Sabitha and Mopidevi) two ministers, Home Minister and Excise Minister were indulging in corruption that didn't go any further but Shankar Rao's allegations against them stand vindicated after the later events where money was taken to post cops and excise officials.

In view of these instances that are in public domain, Jagan and Vijayamma would high-light these to show the differential treatment. So by the time CBI makes its gutsy move and arrests Jagan, the YSR Congress party will be ready with its own weapons to take on the Congress, and blunt CBI's every move, castigating it as motivated at the behest of its political s in Delhi.

There is every bit of evidence that the battles will continue till a War is fought. By disqualifying 16 J camp MLA's, the congress has shown its willingness to fight.

With Vijayamma also making impressive show in her assembly speeches, the fight will be no holds bar. Therefore, we are in for another grand fight between Jagan vs Sonia, Kadapa Vs Delhi or A greenhorn (YSRCP) versus the greatgrandmother (INC) giant duel.