TDP's seat arithmetics may not hold right

Hyderabad: The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is reportedly hoping to win six Assembly seats in the coming June 12 by-elections , but the logic on which it is basing its calculations appear doubtful.

In the Party's Politburo meeting held recently, for instance, Yerran Naidu, the party stalwart from North Coastal Andhra, said to have explained that since the traditional Congress vote would split between Dharmana Krishna Das (YSRCP) and Dharmana Ramdas (Congress), the TDP candidate from Narasannapet of Srikakulam district would have an easy way.

Dharmana Krishna Das and Dharmana Ramdas are brothers of Minister Dharmana Prasada Rao. However, this arithmetic seems to be too simplistic.

Because, going by this kind of calculation, the TDP should be able to win not just six but many more of the 18 constituencies going to polls next month.

If we look at Kovur in Nellore district which had a by-poll recently, for instance, the TDP which won the seat in 2009 General Elections by a majority of over 7,000 votes, should have won in the by-poll with a bigger majority, what with the split of Congress vote between the candidates of Congress and YSRCP.

On the contrary, the TDP lost it by a margin of more than 23,000 votes. The reasons are many. The obvious lesson from this is, no vote of any party is a constant factor.

It changes from election to election depending on the prevailing situations, candidates of other parties etc.

Even though all the major parties enjoy what is called a base vote, that is simply not enough to win an election, as has been proved time and again. The base vote need to be supplemented by other votes, which keep fluctuating.

This time the TDP leaders are said to be pinning their hopes on Narasannapet (Srikakulam),Anantapur (Urban), Rayadurgam (Anantapur), Prathipadu (Guntur), Macherla (Guntur) and Udayagiri (Nellore). The party lost in all these places to the Congress previously.

Narasannapet itself was lost by more than 17,000 votes and for three times consecutively. Similarly Rayadurgam in 2009 by over 13,000 votes and Anantapur for three times in a row.

Last time it was by a margin of 13,000 votes. And Prathipadu, Macherla and Udayagiri twice each in succession. The difference in votes in Prathipadu was about 2,000 but in the other two it was 9,000 and 14,000 in 2009 elections.

In addition to the organizational weaknesses, what the political observers are watching carefully is the possible desertions of votes from both the Congress and the TDP to the new party of Y S Jaganmohan Reddy.

Since this has become an unknown factor, how it may turn out has become the crucial issue to be tested.

It is equally important for all the three parties. While one may get an inkling of it towards the end of campaigning , the actual picture will emerge only when votes are counted on June 15.